CORONAVIRUS UPDATE : At current trajectory, India’s corona case count likely to reach 75,000 in the next five days

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Thane, and Ariyalur (Tamil Nadu) districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE : At current trajectory, India’s corona case count likely to reach 75,000 in the next five days
Representative image

The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose 14 percent over the past two days to 56,342, data from the morning update of the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) showed. This is a slower rate of increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 16 percent to 49,391.

So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 32 percent (between Monday morning and Friday morning). This is a faster rate of increase compared to the previous four days, when confirmed cases had risen by 28 percent.

Although India’s coronavirus trajectory has tapered since last month, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Japan and Singapore. The rise of infections in India is now faster than in neighbours Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Compared to Western nations where the virus has claimed more lives, the trajectories of most Asian countries, including India, have been flatter. Yet, with new infections declining, the worst may be over for several European countries. In many Asian countries, new infections are still rising.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was eleven days ago. This is much slower compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise compared to the trend in early-April but have picked up pace over the past week. India’s death toll from covid-19 as of today morning was 1,886, roughly double what it was ten days ago.

At the current rate of compounded daily growth, the number of cases would rise to 75,000 in five days. If this trajectory continues beyond that period, it could overwhelm India’s hospital capacity and strain an already overburdened health system.

At 13,979, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update this morning. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

Gujarat has the second most number of active cases (4,878), followed by Delhi (3,983). At 3,825 active cases, Tamil Nadu has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Madhya Pradesh (1,828). Tamil Nadu had dropped out of the top five list but a recent surge in new infections has put it among the top five once again. The top five states together account for 75 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 94 percent of all cases.

Nationally, the active case count was 37,916 as of today morning. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.

Over the past seven days, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra have seen the highest spike in cases among the top ten states with most cases. These three states account for 75 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in West Bengal, Gujarat, and Rajasthan. These three states account for 50 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days.

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Thane, and Ariyalur (Tamil Nadu) districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 58 percent of new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days include Viluppuram and Thiruvallur in Tamil Nadu, and Nashik in Maharashtra.

So far, 512 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (11,402 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (4,991) in Gujarat. Chennai (2,653) in Tamil Nadu, Pune (2,269) in Maharashtra, and Thane (1,889) in Maharashtra are the other leading districts. These top five districts now account for 42 percent of confirmed cases in the country.

Indore (1,699) in Madhya Pradesh, New Delhi (1,458), Jaipur (1,097) in Rajasthan, Jodhpur (867) in Rajasthan, and Kolkata (810) in West Bengal are the other high-burden districts which figure in the list of top ten districts. The top ten districts account for 53 percent of the confirmed cases nationally.

Most of India’s hotspots so far have been urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest.

The coronavirus case count has crossed 3.8 million globally even as several parts of the country and the world remain under lockdown to contain the pandemic.

Source : livemint